Can Kishida Make A Comeback?
On June 23, the 213th ordinary session of the Diet came to a close, but Prime Minister Kishida is far from catching a break. His cabinet is facing significant challenges on multiple fronts, including accusations of inadequate revisions to the Political Funds Control Law and waning public opinion due to a defense ministry scandal and a defeat in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly by-election.
According to an NHK poll released on July 8, only 25% of respondents support Kishida’s cabinet, while 57% do not.
Political and Defense Scandals
One major issue is Kishida’s plan to double defense spending, which has hit several roadblocks due to the weak yen and scandals at the Ministry of Defense. The Ministry has been dealing with 220 scandals involving the misuse of state secrets and power harassment. Senior officials have resigned or received pay cuts as a result.
Kishida apologized for these scandals during a press conference in Washington, D.C., but public opinion has soured on his push to increase the defense budget. The depreciation of the yen further complicates his plan to double defense spending to 2% of Japan’s GDP. With defense spending financed by taxpayers’ money, Kishida is likely to face more criticism for moving ahead without public support.
Tokyo Governor Election Results
On July 7, Yuriko Koike was reelected as Tokyo governor for a third term. As an independent not supported by the LDP, her victory is not ideal for the Kishida administration. The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election held on the same day saw only two of the eight LDP candidates winning seats. This calls into question the party’s ability to win elections under the current leadership.
The LDP’s failure can be attributed to the LDP political funds scandal, where party members received kickbacks from political fundraisers. This issue has increased distrust in the LDP, and further negative impact is certain unless improvements are made.
LDP Presidential Race
The LDP holds an election for its leader once every three years or when a sitting prime minister resigns. The next election is set for the end of September. Shigeru Ishiba, a former LDP secretary-general, has decided to run. Despite limited support from fellow Diet members, he is highly rated in opinion polls.
Taro Kono, minister in charge of digital transformation, has also indicated his intention to run. In the previous presidential election, he was defeated by Kishida due to a lack of support from his own Aso Faction. With faction boss Taro Aso expected to support Kishida’s reelection this time, Kono might not be able to muster enough support.
Veteran LDP members such as Sanae Takaichi, Minister of State for Economic and Security Affairs, are also likely to join the race. With the Kishida administration under scrutiny for its handling of various political issues and declining support, all eyes are on each candidate to present their plans for improving the LDP’s approval rating.
Future of the Kishida Administration
Kishida’s cabinet support and LDP approval ratings have fallen to record lows following the LDP political funds scandal. There is widespread dissatisfaction that Kishida himself has not been punished, despite the involvement of a former Kishida faction chief accountant.
Opposition members accuse the administration of being dysfunctional due to unclear policy proposals and lack of coordination between the prime minister’s office and LDP officials. The administration has also been criticized for lacking a long-term perspective in policy management, including difficulties in implementing a flat-rate tax cut and securing financial resources for measures to address the declining birthrate.
Despite declining approval ratings, Kishida is still not under strong pressure to step down. This can be attributed to the absence of a strong opposition party or a popular LDP presidential candidate. Kishida is expected to aggressively pursue activities to regain support through diplomatic efforts and PR opportunities while the Diet is in recess. However, whether he can rebound in time for the September election remains to be seen.